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Is a Sub 2 hour Marathon Possible?

Discussion in 'Break Room' started by Craig Payne, Sep 30, 2013.

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  1. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

  2. Like I said in December 2016, with all this talk from Nike and Adidas about their multimillion dollar sub-2 hour marathon project, in real races the sub-2 hour marathon mark probably won't be broken for another 8 years.

    Kevin Kirby, December 12, 2016:

    "The real question becomes then when Nike's three runners don't break the 2-hour marathon barrier in 2017 and when one, or more, of their athletes gets injured due to the increased training intensity required, will Nike live up to it? Not a chance.

    Nike is famous for promising things that never occur...or over-promising how wonderful their shoes will be for all runners. It's just Nike's way...marketing without facts or results to back up their hype.

    My prediction? The 2-hour marathon barrier won't be broken until at least 2025."

    From someone who has raced many marathons and knows how hard it is to run as fast as these guys are running now,....just enjoy the fact that they are running as fast as they currently and forget about the artificial time barriers of a "sub-2 hour marathon". It's just another mark on the time scale.

    One more thing, after all that hype from Nike and Adidas about how great their shoes are, and how their shoe technologies are going to allow these athletes to break 2 hours in the marathon this year, did these companies' shoes help these gifted athletes break any world records at the Berlin Marathon this morning. NO! It is the athletes that break world marathon records, not the shoes or the shoe companies!

    I'm getting sick of all the marketing hype from the shoe companies, using it as an excuse to sell a running shoe for the obscene amount of money they are asking. Are these shoes really worth the money they are asking for it? I don't think so!
     
  3. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    I pretty much agree with your views Dr Kirby... in particular the attitude/conduct of the shoe companies. I often wonder what Bill Bowerman would think of Nike's attitude & direction if he were around today. Recently I brought some Nike track pants to train in (I didn't bother trying them on before purchase as I thought surely they'll be ok)... these were terribly designed for running in (i.e. crotch too low), despite being labelled as running gear. When I inquired about the poor design I was told... "that's the fashion these days"... :mad: but they're suppose to be running/training pants (not a fashion statement)!

    Difficult to say about the sub 2 hour marathon... maybe 8 years+. As you say, it's the athletes - not the darn shoes that achieve such incredible performances.
     
  4. Great event that Berlin Marathon!

    It is too bad that the Berlin Marathon didn't get as much media attention as the FAKE MARATHON that Nike sponsored using a Tesla with huge wind-breaking clock and pacers for 26+ miles back in May 2017. Why is that?

    Nike got the media attention that it wanted for its FAKE MARATHON....the 3 participating athletes all got between $500,000 to $750,000 for running in Nike's FAKE MARATHON...Nike was successful in tying their new shoe to their FAKE MARATHON as if the shoe was actually the reason the athletes ran so artificially fast.

    Who lost? The athletes over the years that broke the marathon record lost. These athletes broke the world record in the marathon without being wind-aided and by competing under real weather and road conditions. Their loss is that their amazing achievements were ultimately cheapened by Nike's media marketing event which attempted to associate their new shoe to their FAKE MARATHON results.
     
  5. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Aloha,
    The only thing that marks a REAL MARATHON is the distance.
    So if it is 26.2 its 26.2.

    Kevin we can break the two hour marathon record today and the technology is available for those who wish.

    Great job writing the CME in Podiatry Management Mag on "The Biomechanics of Running Shoes."

    But i would suggest that "podiatrists today need to be aware of the most important research in running shoe biomechanics in order to be able to provide the best medical advice on the most proper running shoes for their runner-patents.:

    Some of that research is posted here
    https://www.kingetics.com/maren/

    Why wait 8?

    Fellow Marathoner,
    Steve

    Here is a bit of marathon history to add to this thread.
    The idea for the modern marathon was inspired by the legend of an ancient Greek messenger who raced from the site of Marathon to Athens, a distance of about 40 kilometers, or nearly 25 miles, with the news of an important Greek victory over an invading army of Persians in 490 B.C. After making his announcement, the exhausted messenger collapsed and died. To commemorate his dramatic run, the distance of the 1896 Olympic marathon was set at 40 kilometers.
    For the next few Olympics, the length of the marathon remained close to 25 miles, but at the 1908 Games in London the course was extended, allegedly to accommodate the British royal family. As the story goes, Queen Alexandra requested that the race start on the lawn of Windsor Castle (so the littlest royals could watch from the window of their nursery, according to some accounts) and finish in front of the royal box at the Olympic stadium—a distance that happened to be 26.2 miles (26 miles and 385 yards). The random boost in mileage ending up sticking, and in 1921 the length for a marathon was formally standardized at 26.2 miles (42.195 kilometers).
    http://www.history.com/news/ask-history/why-is-a-marathon-26-2-miles

    and sorry about your baggy Nike pants Ben Hur,
    i did not think Gladiators even wore pants...
    [​IMG]
     
  6. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Yes, not to mention the fresh pacers joining the "FAKE MARATHON" throughout the event. Officially, pacers have to start the race with the official runners - hence subject to the effects of fatigue over the closing stages (thus slowing down or dropping out). Having fresh pacers during the Nike event certainly helps compared to a race environment where the win & prize money carrot can complicate things physically & mentally with the official runners (i.e. pacers have won events or come close to winning events e.g. Paul Tergat's 2003 Berlin marathon victory & world record; where pacesetter Sammy Korir nearly beat him [1 sec. behind] ). Then there is the constant windbreak/drafting effect by a group of fresh pacers throughout... of which Nike tested pacer/runner locations around the official runner within a wind tunnel to get the optimal drafting configuration (i.e. arrow shape configuration... which has also been termed "cooperative drafting" :confused:). Apparently the biggest drag reduction came from the pacers & not the car with the big clock on top (of which still had an aerodynamic impact)... collectively saving an estimated few minutes (i.e. "4:30min." so one documentary stated).

    The Nike event was a "carefully controlled experiment" i.e. controlled course; delivered nutrition throughout; controlled pacing/drafting throughout). I suppose the shoe data/info was interesting from this event i.e. Nike's Vaporfly 4% (albeit, specific data relevant to the test subjects)... but I would be curious trying the Vaporfly 4% for myself. If I was in race mode at the moment I definitely would have a pair, as a friend owns a running shop (who has links with Nike, hence got the shoe in store about 8 weeks ago).

    Thanks for the marathon history refresher Steve. I am certainly aware of the Royal Family influence on the distance :mad:... & to be honest, it has pissed me off (excuse language) in the past... where on two occasions I have hit the wall bad at the 39 - 40km mark (all because those precious little tikes wanted to look at the event from their window). I was under the impression the original length was around 36 - 38 km (but I could be wrong on that).

    Thanks Steve... but in this day n' age I have to wear pants... there would be too many complaints otherwise (besides, I'm very modest :oops:).

    All the best with your marathon shoe project. Is there a test date set?
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2017
  7. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Aloha Ben,
    We have just finished the Finite Element Analysis of the spring levered orthotic device this past semester with Prof. Chad Ulven at the Mechanical Engineering Department at North Dakota State U as a sponsored grant from Ameriflax.
    How neat we can now make our shoes out of flax composites that will not fill up our landfills as with the archaic blown foam shoes that take over 10,000 years to decompose and to leach out their chemical components into our ground water supply . Or foams that end up doing catastrophic circles in the Not-So-Great Pacific Gyre. Your footwear should not be in your food chain! Fish like eating foam, tasty, yum.

    If you know of any sub 2:10 marathoners that would like to take on our 1:51 Challenge send them our way.

    We plan on breaking the two hour marathon distance running down Haleakala Volcano while closely following a Surf Rents Box Truck while our runners have sweet nothings whispered into their ears from our inspiration specialists. They will also get race nutrition from cans of POG and post race recovery with Akole Hau.

    Also it is OK for you to feel good in your own skin, perhaps you should try wearing a speedo while doing your cardio?


    A hui hou,
    Steve

    Levers Do Work...
     
  8. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Aloha,
    I appleagize for that past video.
    But minimalism does have its place.

    A hui hou,
    Steve

    I hope -pray that the rescue workers in the Carrabian are not wearing speedos.
    But maximalism does have its place...
     
  9. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    I'm all for more environmentally friendly products... particularly with such heavily disposed items such as running shoes (I know Brooks have gone down this path). So good for you in going down this path as well.

    So I take it you now have the finished product - this "spring-levered orthotic" shoe? Do you have any pictures available & some specs i.e. weight of the shoe. Naturally I'm interested... curious. However, will such a shoe be accepted in accordance to IAAF standards? From memory, you had some military affiliations/intentions for this project... but if the shoe doesn't fit IAAF guidelines I would think the scope for such a shoe would be limited to military connections... at least that's the vibe I'm getting from past reflection on conversation on this project years ago.

    Are you saying that the shoe/orthotic will take what I'm assuming is at least 10min. off the athletes time (going by the above i.e. "1:51 Challenge")?

    With all the hype at the present time with breaking 2hrs for the marathon & the extraordinary lengths Nike has gone to try & achieve it... I would think your offer would be quite attractive for many athletes... despite the legal implications with the shoe/orthotic device... & the course you appear to have chosen. You are also aware of guidelines pertaining to marathon courses i.e. criteria for the elevation distance between the start & finish lines of the course not being above a certain percentage grade.

    However, to me it appears you have most favourable opportunities sitting at your front door...

    Hawaii is now in its marathon season...
    - Kauai Marathon has recently passed (3rd September: won in a slowish 2:45.27| course record: 2:23.21).
    - Maui Marathon is on 15th October (course record: 2:19.22).
    - Honolulu Marathon is on 10th December (record: 2:09.39... which was last years winner - Lawrence Cherono from Kenya - in fact Kenya has won 19 of the last 20 years, with the exception being from Ethiopia).
    - Hawai'i Bird Conservation Marathon is on 16th December (apparently "designed to be the FASTEST marathon course in Hawai‘i & one of the fastest in the world!") Here is some more details here: https://www.facebook.com/events/1856211387953647/ ... for example:
    I think the above options could be ideal to test your project out... & very soon... & I'm sure there wouldn't be much problem in finding a decent athlete that would be attracted to such a potential opportunity (even if it wasn't legally certified)... it will at least gain much media attention.

    Idea: there appears to be many Kenyans doing the Honolulu Marathon... get in touch with one of them to either race in your shoe for that event... or... ask him to wait for another 6 days (provide accommodation) to then do what appears to be the fast Hawai'i Bird Conservation Marathon (like I said, the opportunity in your neck of the woods is there for the taking... & within the next 2 - 3 months).

    I would love to do a marathon in Hawaii... unfortunately I'm not in marathon shape at the moment.

    Anyway, all the best with it.

    Yea... but we in Australia have just come out of our winter season... & the poorly designed Nike running pants was intended to be used during this colder period... hence wearing Speedos at this time wasn't really what I had in mind (I did know a guy who ran in Speedos in the summer months - & it still attracted unfavourable sentiments from other runners... not to mention stares from the public... similar to what the video of yours depicted :eek:).
    However, if I lived in Hawaii... it could be a different story ;).

    Oh... & by the way... thanks for that video... I've got that Speedos song stuck in my head now (playing over & over :confused:)
     
  10. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Aloha Ben and PA crew,
    Firstly I was thinking of gaming the system by utilizing a big downhill course. Most folks would shy from running a downhill marathon but when shoes are built really well folks can handle it. 26.2 is 26.2.

    Finding a high end athlete that is not has been under contract with Big Foam has been extraordinarily difficult. Folks just are not understanding the use of more simple machines in our footwear than the current declineing plane "22-12 foot drop" foam wedge.

    Question-
    What happens to the velocity of a marble when we roll it down a shoe from heel to forefoot?
    Of course it increases.
    So all current shoes with declining planes are taking advantage over minimalist flat shoes through the use of a "simple machine".

    We just figured out a system that added 3 more simple machines.

    As I have published on this blog before. USATF Rule 143 states "Any orthotic device used for medical purposes is exempt from this rule."
    Ah hello Doc,, Do you ever prescribe orthotics for your athletes for medical purposes ? Proper answer would be Yes,, Every time!

    If they the "Ruling Bodies"then over rule your medical treatment and the athlete gets injured worse,,??
    That's when the Law Sharks start smelling-circling the blood money.

    I am all for an Original "nude" Olympics. Just as long as the announcers keep their baggy pants on.

    But the modern olympics is more than just a well fed slave with oiled down skin. It's the accumulation of many specialists in many fields firming up a determined and gifted athlete.

    I am happy to do my part as Just one those specialists. Thank God.also more than happy to do my part to get the Australian and US army and our global disaster response efforts equipped with maximalist enhanced boots-shoes. How about you?

    The Hawaiian Bird conservation marathon sounds fun even if you need to stride in front of the front bumper of the marathon gut truck.

    A Hot Hawaiian lava flow could make you run a lot faster!

    A hui hou,
    Steve
     
  11. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Do you want to be taken seriously Dr King?

    No one is going to take your project (& your claims) seriously if you test this device on an unofficial course of your own devising... where the start altitude & finish altitude is too great a difference (as you are promoting i.e. "running down Haleakala Volcano")...
    Hence, it is not because "most folks shy away from running a downhill marathon"... it is because there isn't many of such around, based in part to the above IAAF rules.

    Firstly, you need to work out where a large pool of fast marathon runners are; go there; then find one who isn't on a shoe contract.
    Answer: Simple... Kenya... to be a bit more specific... go to a place called Eldoret (via road it is 325km from Nairobi or you can fly to Eldoret International Airport). To give you an idea of the marathon depth in Kenya... 427 men (repeat - 427) had a qualifying performance for the Rio 2016 Olympic Games (which would make it one of the hardest sporting teams in world sport to get into). I can guarantee you that all 427 men will NOT have a shoe contract... in fact, I'll be surprised if half do. When in Eldoret (a distance running mecca), find a training group... look at their training/performance... ask some of the runners who think are suitable if they have a shoe contract... if no... make them an offer to fly to Hawaii to do this marathon of yours... & if your claims are anywhere near valid (i.e. "1:51 Challenge")... you should get a sub 2hr marathon. Problem (pretty much) solved... albeit some minor details i.e. passport etc..

    I personally wouldn't call it a "machine"... I call it... "heel to forefoot pitch"... or.. "midsole pitch".

    [This conversation/language is seemingly a déjà vu experience for me... similar to that SDO (orthotic) conversation I had with someone else]

    The key words/phrase here is "medical purposes". Putting aside the myriad of medical purposes that conventional orthotics are used for... what specific medical purpose would your lever focussed orthotic provide for such an individual capable of running a sub-2hr marathon? You seem to be trying to promote your lever focussed orthotic in the way of a performance enhancing device... not a medical purpose device. I haven't delved into the IAAF rulings on performance enhancing devices & medical purpose devices... but based on (at the very least) the dialogue on this forum, your lever focussed orthotic crosses the boundary to that of an intended performance enhancing device (of which, by your reckoning, is capable of taking at least 10min. off an individual's marathon time... within the context of this "1:51 Challenge" of yours). I'm no lawyer either... but I'm sure any two-bit lawyer can run circles around the medical purpose intentions for such an orthotic (they just need to find this thread for starters... & read your claims & intentions).

    Meaning what exactly? (some of your views are quite ambiguous)
     
  12. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Aloha,
    All good points.
    The physics of tech we are innovating must be taken seriously lives and limbs are at stake, but don't take me too seriously, I'm having a bit of fun with you all.

    Has anyone ever broke the FAKE 2 hour marathon record?

    If not we want to be the first!

    Do you ever prescribe orthotics for your athletes for medical purposes ? Proper answer would be Yes,, Every time!

    Happy Friday!
    Steve
     
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    A Statistical Timetable for the Sub-2-Hour Marathon
    Angus, Simon D.
    Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise: February 26, 2019 - Volume Publish Ahead of Print - Issue - p
     
  17. Tyler Mintz

    Tyler Mintz Welcome New Poster

    Someone will do it just to prove everyone else wrong.
     
  18. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

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  23. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

  24. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    It's looks like it's going to happen... slowest km split: 2:52... fastest: 2:48. Looking good with just a few km to go (under 10min. left).
     
  25. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Done It! 1.59:40
    Congratulations Eliud Kipchoge!
    Great to watch... an amazing runner!
     
  26. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    The weekend was a big one for marathoning... with the above sub-2hr effort (under controlled conditions - hence not an official world record i.e. pacers not completing the whole distance)… but the day later in Chicago, the long standing (16 years) woman's world record was broken... by Brigid Kosgei (Kenya), in a time of 2:14.04. With this thread discussing if a sub-2hr marathon is possible... Brigid Kosgei stated in post-race interview that a 2:10 could be possible for the woman. The issue with woman is that they do have pacemakers with them throughout the race (i.e. decent male marathon runners who can run around 2:10)… of which male runners don't have (hence the set-up in Vienna via teams of pacemakers at different sections of the race/route).



    Brigid Kosgei Runs 2:14:04, Shatters Women’s Marathon World Record at 2019 Chicago Marathon (https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/1...VLao_pxpbUtnzykxyfw9HejfUaBhmt7mHBAnoBYb2O43Y)

    The above article discusses the shoes i.e. the Vaporfly 4% Flyknit & the ZoomX Vaporfly Next%’s

    Quote:
    "Shoe technology has improved tremendously (see next point)
    Since the Vaporflys were introduced officially in 2017, we’ve seen the following:
    -5 different men have run faster than the world record that existed before the release of the Vaporflys (Dennis Kimetto’s 2:02:57), including Kipchoge’s 2:01:39 world record
    -Eliud Kipchoge has run 2:00:25 and 1:59:40 in 26.2-mile exhibitions
    -Two men have run faster than Zersenay Tadese’s pre-Vaporfly half marathon WR of 58:23 (one later suspended for an ABP violation)
    -7 performances have been recorded faster than Florence Kiplagat’s pre-Vaporfly WR of 65:07 (albeit at least one of those runs wasn’t run in Vaporflys)
    -Brigid Kosgei has obliterated Paula Radcliffe’s world record by 81 seconds
    This is not a coincidence. Before today, one of the arguments Vaporfly non-believers clung to was that Radcliffe’s WR — which was not run in Vaporflys — remained unchallenged, 16 years later. That is no longer the case. Kosgei just ran way faster than Radcliffe’s WR, and she did it in Vaporflys.
    The fact that a legendary record was just destroyed by a Vaporfly-wearing athlete should end any and all debate that the shoes have massively changed what is regarded as a fast time in the marathon.
    Interestingly, Kosgei said she wanted to use the shoes she wore in London this spring (the Vaporfly 4% Flyknit) and was only convinced to switch to the pair of ZoomX Vaporfly Next%’s that she wore today after watching the INEOS 1:59 Challenge yesterday.
    “My agent told me [I’m] supposed to use the pink one (the Next%), and I refuse,” Kosgei said. “I was just 50-50 to use the pink one. But something come in my mind, say that yesterday, Kipchoge run and use the same shoes and the other pacemakers [did too]. Why not me?”"

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    I Tried the Vaporfly 4% - & they felt incredible (i.e. increased bounce & toe spring)… but from all accounts I've read, the ZoomX Vaporfly Next%’s are even better. Personally I feel they should be banned, I feel they give a definite advantage over conventional running/racing shoes - they are a performance enhancer. I have recently read that the IAAF changed the rules regarding mechanical aid & footwear in 2017... just prior to Nike releasing the Vaporfly 4%... coincidence??!! Then there is the Alberto Salazar (coach of i.e. Mo Farah, Galen Rup) doping scandal (currently serving a 4-year ban for doping offences)... head coach of the Nike Oregon Project. Can't help but wonder what Bill Bowerman would think of all of this.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
  27. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member

    Step One
    Add carbon fiber spring plate technology to athletic footwear systems.
    Step Two
    Go faster-farther-safer than ever before.
    Step Three Repeat...
     
  28. Dr. Steven King

    Dr. Steven King Well-Known Member


    Umm Kevin your guestimate was way off the mark.
    Time to readjust your marathon estimator for a whole bunch of new CARBON FIBER shoe systems.
    Like it or not...
    I like it!
    A hui hou,
    Steve
    Carbon Fiber Spring Lever Runner


    "Like I said in December 2016, with all this talk from Nike and Adidas about their multimillion dollar sub-2 hour marathon project, in real races the sub-2 hour marathon mark probably won't be broken for another 8 years."​
     
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