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Is a Sub 2 hour Marathon Possible?

Discussion in 'Break Room' started by Craig Payne, Sep 30, 2013.

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  1. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Members do not see these Ads. Sign Up.
    In case you missed it, the world marathon record was broken in Berlin a couple of days ago by Wilson Kipsang. He heel striked his way to 2:03:23

    I had to resort to following the race on Twitter and live analysis by Ross Tucker - it was frustrating not to watch it live as it appeared that after the first 10k, something special was going to happen.

    Here is Ross Tuckers analysis of the race.

    Every time a world record in the marathon falls, there is often a flurry of analysis on the topic if a two hour marathon is possible:
    Is the sub-2 hour marathon imminent? Don't hold your breath (Ross Tucker)
    A Sub-2-Hour Marathon? Don’t Hold Your Breath (Competitor Magazine)

    Here are some articles from 2011 when this last came up:
    Could a marathon ever be run in under two hours?
    1:59:59...will we ever see a sub-2 hour marathon?
    Will humans one day run a marathon in under two hours?
     
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    Admin2 Administrator Staff Member

  3. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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  4. Craig:

    Kipsang looked like more of a midfoot striker during the last mile of the race in the video I watched, but it wasn't clear. Do you have a video of him clearly heel-striking during the race?
     
  5. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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  6. Try this video.....looks like midfoot striking to me....but the video is not the greatest...



    I just wish someone would have tackled the stupid guy with the yellow shirt before he crossed the finish line ahead of Kipsang.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
  7. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Without reading the above cited articles posted by Craig (haven't the time yet), I think it could be possible for a sub 2hr marathon... probably within 20 years (but who knows with Kenenisa Bekele & Mo Farrah yet to attempt).

    Here is the Marathon World Record Progression Wiki.. The men's marathon has a fairly frequent progression rate (compared to other events).

    As for Wilson Kipsang's foot strike - looks midfoot to me (from what I've seen)... but then again, who’s to say that Kipsang (or anyone for that matter) should perform a particular foot strike 100% of the time (particularly habitual midfooters). I would call myself a predominant midfoot striker but take a photo at certain stages of a training run or race & I could be heel striking or forefoot striking (i.e. depending on the degree of gradient of the surface e.g. downhill - heel strike, uphill - forefoot)... & would also depend on the nature (hardness/stiffness) of the surface (which is predominantly a road surface for marathon races). Also in an arduous event like the marathon (whilst pushing the limits for a fast time), it may pay to offload some muscle groups (i.e. T/Surae, Quads) at times by alternating foot strike patterns (has this issue been discussed?) for optimal (economical) performance...

    [​IMG]
    Looks heel striking... but then it also looks to be a downhill section (???).



    :D:D... those twits annoy you also Kevin :)boxing: - the twit stuffed up Kipsang's finishing photo with WR time). For the record I'm trying very hard not to express my annoyance at the many stupid, irritating (putting it mildly) things that pollute & poison this planet (it's just not worth killing my DNA over) - albeit, it's darn hard :bang: at times...

    [​IMG]
     
  8. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    The following website is a good place to find world athletics/running videos (& news) of major races/events: Watch Athletics - The Best Track & Field Online Videos. Here is another video of the Berlin Marathon (better foot strike analysis)...



    ... i.e. W. Kipsang's foot strike - looks predominantly midfoot (i.e. from 41 sec. mark of video).

    :eek: :eek:... those guys are motoring (half way in 1.01:32)... yet they looked soooo relaxed.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
  9. The most amazing thing about Kipsang's 2:03:23 marathon (26.21875 miles)?

    That is, on average, a 4:42 mile pace, boys and girls!!!

    How many of you have even run one mile at that pace?! Now multiply that by 26.21875 and you will realize just how really incredible this performance is.

    All I know he was almost a minute faster per mile than my PR in the marathon....very humbling!!

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
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  11. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    To think that Wayne's World is now 21 years old... man, time flies.

    Schwing!
     
  12. homeless_andy

    homeless_andy Member

    full video of the race with german commentary
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
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  14. Deka08

    Deka08 Active Member

    I was watching the Amsterdam marathon for a couple of minutes last night. The commentators were discussing this, and one of them raised the possibility of a sub 2 hour run on a treadmill. I know that there are significant differences, but it raised an interesting idea. Set the speed at 22kph for the first half, 21kph for the second half and run until you can't......... Is it a record? No, but an idea.
     
  15. jeffhicken

    jeffhicken Welcome New Poster

    Not by me!
     
  16. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    While on this topic, for those following the thread on the 'biomechanically perfect' running shoe from Airia in which they claim a subject specific performance improvement in running by up to 7% .... this means if Wilson Kipsang was wearing those shoes and the 7% applied to him, he could have hypothetically run 2:00:28.
     
  17. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    An article from SPIKES:

    Cracking the sub two-hour marathon (here)

     
  18. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Continuing on from the last post... could we have a candidate for the sub 2 hour marathon?

    Recently (Friday 24th January 2014), the Dubai Marathon was held (known for flat course, top class runners, fast times... & big money). The winner was an Ethiopian (no big surprise there) by the name of Tsegaye Mekonnen Asefa in a very fast time of 2:04:32 (9 sec. shy of the course record & 69 sec. shy of the world record). [Race results here]. The thing is that Tsegaye Mekonnen Asefa is apparently only 18 years of age (where he, as you would expect, broke the world junior record... by 1 min. 35 sec.). Not only that, this was his debut marathon... he entered the race with a half marathon P.B (personal best [P.R for USA]) of 62:53... he easily broke that during the race - going through half way in 61:39 :eek: (here is an interesting wrap of the race). The following article has the 1km splits for the race - averaging sub 3min. for 42.2km (so much for my training session of 10 X 1km reps/1min. recovery in 2:52 - 2:58)... Men's 1km Splits here.

    For those here keen/knowledgeable on running (marathons) know how impressive the above facts are... but it gets even more impressive/remarkable whilst reading the points made in the following article... you'll either shake your head :wacko: or laugh :D... or both :confused::
    - Dubai Marathon “Winner” Mekonnen Not 18 Years of Age
    For example:
    Now, I have found no evidence that the claims made in the above article (i.e. Mekonnen being 12 years of age... or that his previous half marathon P.B of 62:53 was done at age 5) are true. I seriously doubt it. Other reports make no mention of the possibility of the 12 y.o age claim (i.e. here). Personally, I feel this journalist (if he is one i.e. Dick Straight) is spinning a tall tale (also his article got the date of the race wrong i.e. "Sunday, January 20th" [also the date - Sunday was the 19th... the race was on the Fri. 24th])... but interesting/funny none the less (did anyone else picture a 2 y.o running with Gebrselassie whilst reading the above :D).

    - He doesn't look 12 in the following footage...


    Whatever the age... young East Africans are producing some incredible results (interesting topic in itself)... within an area which encompasses the greatest of human activities - moving at speed over long distances under one's own steam (running)... so much for the 10 000 hour rule (Malcolm Gladwell's interesting hypothesis) - or maybe this rule indicates something for the future of these young runners of today for the marathon in the not so distant future (i.e. sub 2 hours). [10 000 hour rule calculations -> years]

    Maybe the following is how we should be training western kids...
    I.e. "toughen up princess" - otherwise you're left behind following the pack... whilst the likes of the Australian public will no doubt continue to whinge every 4 years (i.e. during the Olympics) about our poor performances over the distance events on the world stage... whilst happily accepting the following scenario as norm in many cases...

    [​IMG]

    Something to think about.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
  19. [​IMG]

    Love this!!:drinks
     
  20. NewsBot

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    Marathon progress: demography, morphology and environment
    Andy Marc et al
    Journal of Sports Sciences Volume 32, Issue 6, 2014
     
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  23. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Gotta love this bit from pg 152:
    ... I guessed they missed the most recent memo's.
     
  24. W J Liggins

    W J Liggins Well-Known Member

    What goes around, comes around. There's recently been a bit of fuss in the West Midlands UK to commemorate a 1950's marathon man named Jack Holden. Jack was an early 'hard man', a foundry worker who discovered running when training for his favoured sport, boxing. He was notable in those days of the 'gentleman amateur' for training 100 miles per week. At the age of 42 he won the gold in the Empire Games in Auckland. He had special shoes made of kid leather (minimalist?) which fell to pieces during a rain storm. He therefore ran the last 9 miles in bare feet, cutting his feet to ribbons - he nevertheless finished in a very creditable (for those days and conditions) 2.34. When he was asked afterwards if his feet hurt, he scathingly replied "Wha doo yo think, look at 'em". The burghers of Bilston offered to put up a statue to him to which he said "Ain't no dog gunna pee on moi whoile Oim aloive". He died at the age of 97 and to the best of my knowledge never raced in bare feet again!

    If 2 hours is beaten, I bet that it won't be by someone in bare feet running on tarmac!

    Bill
     
  25. BEN-HUR

    BEN-HUR Well-Known Member

    Yes, the Dr Maffetone "barefoot" comment is a bit lame (excuse the pun... I admit, it was intended ;) ). Just so happened to post on a related issue on this sub-2hr. topic... on the "Leg Stiffness: Implications for Injury & Performance" thread i.e. here.

    I have heard of Dr Philip Maffetone (i.e. Maffetone method running)... surprised he would state such a "barefoot" comment at this stage... then again, I just visited his website & found a "Barefoot" page... http://www.philmaffetone.com/barefoot...

    He even sings about it... & has a video - "Barefoot in America" :eek:



    There is also a "Barefoot in the UK" tune (music & lyrics pretty much the same as the U.S version)... I'm hanging out for "Barefoot in the Australia" version :rolleyes: (maybe Craig :craig: can get involved in that one).

    In fact he sounds to be quite a diverse individual... going by this Wiki article...

    An interesting guy to say the least!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
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  27. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    The author of this: is also the author of that:
    I will have a review of his book up on my blog within a few days.
     
  28. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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  29. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Dennis Kimetto has just moved closer, braking the world record in today's Berlin marathon: 2:02:57

    Here are his splits:
    400m - 1min 10 secs
    1km - 2:55
    5km - 14:35
    10km - 29:10
    Half marathon - 1:01:28.5
    Marathon - 2.02.57
     
  30. How about that for an even marathon split! Incredible!!
     
  31. Here is the lead pack at the 2014 Berlin Marathon where a new world marathon record was set. Any barefoot runners in the lead pack? Of course not!

    These runners are too smart to try racing barefoot. They know that they are faster and have less chance for injury by racing in racing flats, just as other elite distance runners have been doing for the past half century.
     
  32. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    I picked up those splits of Twitter, but now doubt they were his true splits and not someone just doing the maths for the average time of those distances if doing a 2.02.57 marathon
     
  33. That would make more sense. Those "splits" are just too good!
     
  34. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    2nd place also came in under the old world record: Emmanuel Mutai, 2:03:13
     
  35. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Looks like he was heel striking to!! - bit hard to tell, but definitely not forefoot striking.
     

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    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 22, 2016
  36. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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  37. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    WTF? ... Kimetto has only apparently been "running" for 4 yrs!!
     
  38. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Definitely a heel striker, here he his at Tokyo marathon ... go figure that the fan boys think heel striking is the root of all evil
     

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  39. When will these anti-rearfoot striking idiots learn that there are very many very fast distance runners who are heel strikers, even when running in low heel height differential racing flats? Are they just making these claims up so they can sell themselves as "experts" and then charge runners exorbitant fees to train them to run "correctly".... more on their forefoot (i.e. Pose, ChiRunning)??
     
  40. Craig Payne

    Craig Payne Moderator

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    Just to get this out in the public domain AGAIN: I am NOT advocating rearfoot striking and I NOT anti-midfoot/forefoot striking. I anti whatever nonsensical woo is made up to support either.

    I just wanted to say that as I got another one of those abusive emails from a fan boy who have a reading disability and can't read and understand what I said .... I just hope their sperm count is as low as their IQ, as society can not have people like that reproducing.
     
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